Muhammad Umar Shinwari

Economic Research · Financial and Climate Risk · Stress Testing

Muhammad Umar Shinwari

Analyst specializing in financial risk, macro-financial analysis, stress testing, and quantitative research on how economic and financial risks shape banks, financial systems, and the wider economy.

Yale School of Management ’26 | New Haven, CT

About

I am an analyst with experience in financial and economic research, specializing in stress testing, macro-financial analysis, scenario modeling, and quantitative research involving large financial and macroeconomic datasets. My work has focused on understanding how macroeconomic and financial risks affect banks, financial systems, and the wider economy.

Over time, I have worked on financial risks, sovereign–bank linkages, climate risk, and the resilience of the financial system. Much of this work has involved building analytical frameworks, working with large and varied datasets, and translating technical findings into clear reports, presentations, and publications.

I am currently completing a Master of Management Studies (Systemic Risk track) at the Yale School of Management, and previously served nearly five years as a Senior Analyst at the Central Bank of Pakistan. I enjoy learning and working with advanced analytical tools for developing models that help us understand the world better.

USD 220B
Banking system assets stress-tested
52
Financial institutions covered
7
Published FSR chapters
6
IMF / BoE training certifications

Experience

Senior Analyst, Financial Stability Department

Central Bank of Pakistan (State Bank of Pakistan)

December 2020 – August 2025

Karachi, Pakistan

Education

Yale University · Yale School of Management

Master of Management Studies, Economics & Finance (Systemic Risk Track)

Full ScholarshipSTEM-Designated

Expected May 2026

New Haven, CT

Relevant Coursework

Financial Stability Regulation · Fixed Income Strategies · Macroprudential Policy · Resolution of Systemically Important Banks · Financial Markets & Macroeconomic Policy · Monetary Policy · The Global Macroeconomy · Data Analysis & Causal Inference · Applied Empirical Methods · Macroeconomic Strategies · Behavioral Finance · Financial Statement Analysis · Corporate Finance · Entrepreneurial Finance · Global Financial Crisis · Intro to Financial Crisis · Systemic Risk Colloquium · Data Science · Competition Economics & Policy · Financial Fraud: Forensic Approach

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

M.Sc. Economics

GPA: 3.74 / 4.00M.Sc. Thesis ↗

Islamabad, Pakistan

Publications

Chapters authored and co-authored for the Financial Stability Review, the flagship annual publication of the State Bank of Pakistan. All links open the official published PDFs.

Resilience of the Banking Sector

Financial Stability Review · State Bank of Pakistan

Global and Domestic Macro-Financial Developments

Financial Stability Review · State Bank of Pakistan

Climate Transition Risk and Financial Stability in Pakistan

Financial Stability Review · State Bank of Pakistan

Impact of Monetary Policy on SME Loan Availability in Pakistan

M.Sc. Thesis · Pakistan Institute of Development Economics · 2018

Policy Essays

Essays written at Yale School of Management on banking regulation, financial stability, and climate risk policy.

Skills & Expertise

Domain Expertise

Capital Stress Testing CCAR / DFAST Regulatory Frameworks Basel III / IV Capital Adequacy Interest Rate Risk (IRR / NII) Balance Sheet Management Liquidity Risk (LCR / NSFR) ICAAP Examination Credit Risk Analysis Market Risk (FX, Equity, Yield Curve) RWA Projections Regulatory Capital Reporting Prudential Policy Development Macroeconomic Analysis Financial Market Monitoring Economic Forecasting Financial Stability Analysis Macroprudential Policy Sovereign-Bank Linkages Climate & Transition Risk Geopolitical Risk Assessment Asset-Liability Management Fixed Income Analytics

Quantitative Methods

VAR / Regression Econometrics Dynamic Balance Sheet Modeling Time Series Analysis Panel Data Econometrics Scenario Analysis & Forecasting Sensitivity & Back-Testing Duration Analysis Logit / Credit Risk Modeling ECL Modeling (PD × LGD × EAD) NGFS Climate Scenario Framework Macro-Financial Transmission Modeling Statistical Modeling Causal Inference Data Visualization

Programming

Python R Stata EViews SQL Excel VBA Power BI MS Office Suite

Data Platforms

Bloomberg Haver IMF Data Repositories World Bank Data Federal Reserve Data S&P Data BIS Financial Statistics CPB World Trade Monitor PSX / Supervisory Datasets

Professional Trainings

Get in Touch

Open to conversations about economic and financial research, risk analysis, policy work, and full-time opportunities starting in 2026.